2022 QB Rankings and Analysis Using New Metric

Ranking QB's is something that everyone does in some aspect, yet everyone always disagrees with each others rankings. Using certain metrics and statistics are a way to make ranking more objective, but determining the worth and validity of each metric and statistic is then debated. Due to this, I decided to craft a metric that I believe does a great job in weighting each QB's productivity.

If you have not read my article on the metric I created (Deserved Yards), then you probably should, not only because it is a great and insightful article, but because it lays the foundation to the metric I used for this ranking and metric.

The Deserved Yard metric I created encompasses how many passing yards each QB deserved, taking into account air yards and expected yards after catch. Using this metric in a per-drop-back basis allows for an even slate for all QBs in order for us to correctly measure them equally.

I do not believe that this is not enough, though, as it does not encapsulate everything a QB does and should get credit for. I believe Expected Points Added (EPA) does a good job of being an all-around metric, weighting different circumstances in games differently and accurately. The combination of my Deserved Yards metric and EPA gets a great balance of metrics for QBs. Weighting it to be optimal, the new ranking metric I created (DYEPA) multiplies the two (on a per drop back basis) and then adds the Deserved Yards Per Drop Back divided by 10 at the end. The full formula is DYEPA = (Deserved Yards Per Drop Back * Expected Points Added Per Drop Back) + (Deserved Yards Per Drop Back / 10).

Using this new metric, here is the ranking for all QBs using strictly only the 2022 NFL season:

The consensus top QBs in the league typically include some variation of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert. This metric confirms that Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and that Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are top QBs. However, Joe Burrow placed 8th on the list, which is still is very high, but not elite. Justin Herbert ranked 19th using this metric, which basically shows that he is overrated by the average NFL follower.

Quarterbacks such as Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jared Goff performed very well last year, as they all graded within the top 7 QBs. Tagovailoa was almost as elite last season as the MVP and best QB in the league, Patrick Mahomes, yet he does not get nearly enough credit for it. Kyle Shanahan proves year after year how good of a coach he is, as he was able to have two QBs in the top 5 of this metric.

Aaron Rodgers, Mac Jones, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Justin Herbert all did worse than expectation this past season, which was confirmed by this metric. They were all below the likes of Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Jacoby Brissett, which is discouraging considering the pre-season expectations.

Ultimately, DYEPA is a great metric that combines Deserved Yards and Expected Points Added in order to assess the productivity of quarterbacks.