'Deserved Yards' Metric

I decided to create a new passing metric that calculates 'deserved' passing yards for all QBs. Currently passing yards, air yards, and yards after catch are the main three passing yard metrics for QBs. Passing air yards are the number of yards the football travels in the air from the line of scrimmage. Yards after catch is the yardage gained by the receivers after they catch the ball. Passing yards is basically the combination of these two metrics.

People use Air Yards Per Completion (AY/C) to make judgement on how good quarterbacks are because you want a QB who does not get all of their yardage from their receivers running with it after the run. A two yard pass that goes for 30 yards because the receiver broke a couple of tackles should not credit the QB with 30 passing yards, hence why AY/C is a good indicator in this instance, as it would be 2 yards. However, the fault of this metric is that it does not necessarily take into account the QB making the right read and hitting a wide open receiver 5 yards downfield who can easily gain a lot of yards after the catch. Sometimes, and more often that probably thought, it is a better decision to check it down to a receiver who looks like they can gain a lot of Yards After Catch (YAC).

This is what led to my creation of the Deserved Yards metric. QBs should be credited with making the right read and throwing short to an open receiver, but they should not be credited if the receiver breaks a couple of tackles and goes for a long unexpected play. Deserved Yards credits the QBs for all air yards plus the expected yards after the catch. If a QB throws it to a receiver 5 yards downfield, and the receiver is so open that he is expected 15 yards after the catch, the QB is credited with 20 deserved yards, regardless of how many yards the receiver actually gets.

The complete metric is: air yards on completions + expected yards after catch on completions + rushing yards.

Rushing yards is included because, in theory, the QBs deserve every yard they get rushing and do not deserve any rushing yard they do not get because they are in full control of the ball.

The Deserved Yards metric is best used on a per drop back basis, so everyone is weighted the same.

I believe this metric is the perfect passing yards metric to assess the yards each QB deserves, hence the name of the metric. When looking at all the QBs seasons from 2017 to 2022, here are the leaders in Deserved Yard Per Drop Back (minimum 200 drop backs):

Tua Tagovailoa is the only QB to make this list from the 2022 season. Dak Prescott having the 4th and 5th best Deserved Yards Per Drop Back is also very impressive, yet not surprising. It is also notable how great that 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing game was, as both starters were top 7 in deserved yards.

Since the 2022 season is the most recent season to end, I will also show the whole rankings for Deserved Yards Per Drop Back for the 2022 season:

Notable QBs who got helped a lot by their receivers getting yards that were unexpected are Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers clearly had a skill position group that got extra yards for the quarterbacks that were not 'deserved'. Patrick Mahomes, the best QB in the NFL last season, also got a lot of unexpected and undeserved passing yards.

Notable QBs who did not get much help from their receivers were Geno Smith, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, and Mac Jones. Their deserved yards were substantially greater than their actual yards.