2024 NFL Draft - Safeties

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's safety rookie class:

Tyler Nubin, 2nd round pick by the Dallas Cowboys, had the highest rating in this year's safety rookie class, while also having a 31% chance of being a star. Although 31% chance might not seem like that great, he is still projected to be a great starter in the league. This should be assuring to Giants fans, as they lost Xavier McKinney in free agency to the Packers, but replaced him right away with the best safety in the class.

Tykee Smith, 3rd round pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Javon Bullard, 2nd round pick by the Green Bay Packers, were both Georgia teammates last season, and they also happen to be the two next highest graded safeties in this class. Speaking of Xavier McKinney and the Green Bay Packers, McKinney is now paired with Bullard in the secondary for the Packers.

Kamren Kitchens, 3rd round pick by the Los Angeles Rams, was actually the lowest graded safety since 2014. He has a 0% chance of stardom and a whopping 98.7% chance of becoming a bust. The Rams signed another Kamren this offseason with Kamren Curl who will most probably be the starting strong safety this next year with Kitchens backing him up.

Except for the bottom 6 rated safeties, every other safety has less than a 50% chance of becoming a bust, which is encouraging. This means that most safeties in this class are projected to be at least solid rotational defensive backs. For reference, Jaden Hicks's 64.8 projected score is around the NFL scores of Taylor Rapp and Rayshawn Jenkins, which is decent for a 4th round selection.

Ultimately, this class is projected to have some pretty good starters in Nubin, Smith, and Bullard, but it is mostly projected to have decent rotational players, while Kitchens is pretty much standalone for his high chance of becoming a bust.