2024 NFL Draft - Linebackers

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's linebackers rookie class:

Ty'Ron Hopper, 3rd round pick by the Green Bay Packers, is the highest rated linebacker in this class. The model predicts him to have a 87.8% chance of being a star, and only a 0.3% chance of becoming a bust, which is incredible value at his draft position.

Edgerrin Cooper, 2nd round pick by the Green Bay Packers, was the only linebacker taken in the first two rounds this year. Cooper, however, is not predicted to be a great NFL player, as he has under a 5% chance of stardom with greater than a 55% chance of becoming a bust. The Green Bay Packers will have at least one good NFL player between Hopper and Cooper, but the model assumes it to more probably be Hooper, whereas most fans probably assume it to be Cooper.

Nathaniel Watson, 6th round pick by the Cleveland Browns, is the second highest rated LB by the model with a 51% chance of stardom. Watson might sit behind one-time pro bowler Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for the first year, but he could get some playing time on the strong side of the defense above Devin Bush.

Trevin Wallace and Marist Liufau, 3rd round picks by the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys, respectively, both have less than a 1% chance of becoming a star, while having greater than an 85% chance of becoming a bust. This is not obviously not great for a day 2 pick.

Ultimately, there were 2 linebackers that have a greater than 50% chance of becoming a star in Ty'Ron Hopper and Nathaniel Watson, while most of the other prospects do not have high hopes for being anything more than an average starter.