2024 NFL Draft - Cornerbacks

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's cornerback rookie class:

Dwight McGlothern, undrafted free agent for the Minnesota Vikings, is the highest rated cornerback in this class. The model predicts him to have a 48.4% chance of being a star, and only a 5.8% chance of becoming a bust, which is pretty insane for an undrafted free agent. However, if you know McGlothern, you know that he has been extremely productive in college, totaling 8 interceptions in 38 total games playing with both LSU and Arkansas, including interceptions on Jayden Daniels and Bryce Young.

Max Melton, 2nd round pick by the Arizona Cardinals, was the highest rated drafted cornerback with a score of 71, a 31.5% chance of being a star, and only a 12.9% chance of becoming a bust. Melton will most likely be the starting cornerback opposite of Sean Murphy-Bunting. The Cardinals might have a sneakily good secondary this season with Max Melton, Budda Baker, and Jalen Thompson.

There were 10 cornerbacks selecting in the first 2 rounds of this draft: Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, Nate Wiggins, Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Kamari Lassiter, Max Melton, Mike Sainristil, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and Renardo Green.

Melton, Mitchell, Sainristil, Arnold, Wiggins, and McKinstry were the previously mentioned prospects, ranging from 10-32% chances of stardom. Meanwhile, Rakestraw Jr., Lassiter, and DeJean all unfortunately are not projected to do so well in the NFL, all having less than a 5% chance of becoming a star, while having greater than a 50% chance of becoming a bust.

Ultimately, this class is not projected to have any stars, as no prospects have greater than a 50% chance of becoming a star. However, Dwight McGlothern, an undrafted free agent for the Minnesota Vikings, and Max Melton, 2nd round pick by the Arizona Cardinals, have the best chances of being successful at the professional level.