2024 NFL Draft - Defensive Linemen

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's defensive lineman rookie class:

T'Vondre Sweat, 2nd round pick by the Tennessee Titans, is the highest rated defensive lineman since 2014. Along with having a perfect metric score, the model predicts him to have a 97.2% chance of being a star, and only a 0.1% chance of becoming a bust. Titans fans are going to be pretty spoiled watching Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat on that defensive line for many years.

In this year's draft, there were 8 defensive linemen taken in the first two rounds: Byron Murphy II, Ruke Orhorhoro, Jer'Zhan Newton, T'Vondre Sweat, Braden Fiske, Maason Smith, Kris Jenkins, and Michael Hall Jr..

Murphy II, Newton, Hall Jr., and Jenkins have less than a 50% chance of becoming a bust, and they have between a 17-21% chance of becoming stars, meaning that these four players are likely to be just average starters in the league.

Orhorhoro, Fiske, and Smith all have a 2% chance or less of becoming a star, and they have between a 78-96% chance of becoming busts. Falcons, Rams, and Jaguars fans should probably unfortunately be weary of their respected drafted defensive linemen's success.

Ultimately, there were 8 defensive linemen selected in the first two rounds, in which the model believed that 1 of them is elite, 4 will be average starters, and 3 will be busts, making for a pretty well balanced draft class.