2024 NFL Draft - Edge Rushers

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's edge rusher rookie class:

Jared Verse, 19th overall pick by the Los Angeles Rams, is by far the highest ranked edge rusher in this year's class. He also is the only player to have greater than a 25% chance of stardom, as the model predicts him to have nearly a 75% chance to become a star in the NFL.

In this year's draft, there were 7 edge rushers taken in the first two rounds, which is the same amount as the 2023 draft, but 4 less than the 2022 draft, which produced players including Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson II, George Karlaftis, and Boye Mafe, to name a few. The 2023 draft has been rather underwhelming so far in terms of the edge rushers' rookie production. The difference in the number of edge rushers taken in the 2023 and 2022 NFL drafts show that the 2022 draft had more hope for the players, and it was subsequently proven correct so far. This also shows that the 2024 draft does not have very much hope in its edge rushing class, which is evidenced in the model as well.

Other than Verse, the other first round edge rushers this year were Laiatu Latu, Dallas Turner, Chop Robinson, and Darius Robinson, who all had at least a bust chance of 67% or more, which is clearly unideal for their draft positions. Darius Robinson and Laiatu Latu, in specific, had bust chances higher than 90%. Please do not shoot the messenger Cardinals and Colts fans.......

Javontae Jean-Baptiste was drafted in the 7th round by the Washington Commanders, which is great value according to the model, as it predicts a 21% chance that Jean-Baptiste becomes a star, coming in as the second highest rated prospect in this edge rushing class.

Ultimately, there were 7 edge rushers selected in the first two rounds, showing that teams did not necessarily have high hopes for this class, and the model completely agreed, as only 1 edge rusher graded with a score higher than 60. Los Angeles Rams fans have a lot to be excited about when it comes to Jared Verse, but every other team who drafted an edge rusher early on in the draft should be slightly weary of that respected player's success.