2024 NFL Draft - Offensive Linemen

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's offensive line rookie class:

Cooper Beebe, 3rd round pick for the Dallas Cowboys, and Patrick Paul, 2nd round pick for the Miami Dolphins, were the two highest predicted for this year's offensive line class. This year I also added probabilities for becoming a star or a bust, in which Beebe and Paul both have roughly a 45-50% chance of stardom.

Matt Lee was surprising to be top 3, given he was a 7th round draft pick, but he has had a great collegiate career for both Cincinnati and Miami. I can see Lee being a starter by next season, as Max Scharping, the Bengals's backup center last season is now gone, and Ted Karras their starting center only has one year left on his contract.

The majority of the players are projected to neither be a star or a bust, which is something that a lot of NFL teams are looking for in the draft, as having solid rotational offensive linemen is very important.

Ultimately, there were 9 offensive linemen selected in the first round, showing that teams viewed this class as a great one, and the model relatively agreed. 7 offensive linemen received more than a 33% chance of stardom, which is very encouraging. Given the number of offensive linemen prospects, it is hard to get a near perfect accuracy, as there were be a handful of players who do not match their expectation, but I would still trust the general rankings of these players.