2024 NFL Draft - Running Backs

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

Running backs were my best model last year in my opinion, as it predicted Keaton Mitchell to be the 4th best RB in the class, but it had mediocre ratings on Jahmyr Gibbs and Devon Achane, who were arguably the two best rookie RBs last season.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's rookie class:

Audric Estime, 5th round pick for the Denver Broncos, finishes with the best score out of all the running backs of this draft class. Kimani Vidal, 6th round pick for the Chargers, and Jonathon Brooks, 2nd round pick for the Carolina Panthers, round out the top three of the class. This year I also added probabilities for becoming a star or a bust, in which Estime has nearly a 73% chance of becoming a star.

Regarding some of the more notable names in this year's class, such as Trey Benson and Blake Corum, the model does not love their chances of becoming a star with 2.4% and 1.2% chances, respectively.

We have seen many late-round running backs become stars in recent years, such as Isaiah Pacheco, Tony Pollard, and Aaron Jones, so it is not unreasonable to predict some late round prospects to become stars themselves.

Estime, Vidal, and Brooks all join RB rooms that are not the strongest. Estime will most likely be competing with Samaje Perine for rotational playing time. Vidal has to compete with former Baltimore Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but will probably have opportunities given the Jim Harbaugh led run heavy offense. Brooks has to compete with trade-rumored Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, but has more hope than the others given the draft capital invested in him.

Ultimately, this position group was viewed as one of the worst out of all position groups in this year's draft class, and it was reflected as that with the scores. There are some predicted hidden gems in Audric Estime and Kimani Vidal, as well as some predicted busts in Trey Benson and Blake Corum.