2024 NFL Draft - Tight Ends

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's tight end rookie class:

Brock Bowers, 13th overall pick for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Ben Sinnott, 53rd overall pick for the Washington Commanders, were the first two tight ends selected and were also the two highest predicted for this year's tight end class. This year I also added probabilities for becoming a star or a bust, in which Bowers and Sinnott both have greater than a 50% chance of.

Dallin Holker was surprising to be top 3, given he was an undrafted free agent, but keep in mind that Antonio Gates was an undrafted free agent tight end. Please do not think this is me saying Dallin Holker is the next Antonio Gates. Six different tight ends went in the 4th round this year, showing that there is a large clump of mediocrity within this class, which is demonstrated by only Theo Johnson having a percent chance of stardom over 10%.

Ultimately, this position group was hyped up to have really only 1 elite tight end in Brock Bowers, but the model showcased that there were really a couple of them with the addition of Ben Sinnott. My model for tight ends is one of my best out of all positions in terms of predictive nature, which makes me have even more high hopes for the top 2 prospects, as well as a weariness in trusting any other tight end in the class. Given how successful my model is for tight ends, it makes me want to think that the league found its next Antonio Gates 2.0 in Dallin Holker, but it is easy to be skeptical about it.