2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receivers

Last year for the NFL Draft, I had created models to predict success of a few positions. This experience last year was pretty much my first time using predictive models, so looking back on them, they were not the best possible models that could have been made. This has led me to revamp these models and completely optimize them after a full year of improving my statistical and analytical skills.

This season, I am way more confident in the model's accuracy. I used about 50 different variables, and determined the most predictive ones through advanced modeling techniques. Here are the results for this year's rookie class:

Malik Nabers, 6th overall pick for the New York Giants, and Brian Thomas Jr., 23rd overall pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars, were teammates in college at LSU, and the duo also top the predictions for this year's wide receiver class. This year I also added probabilities for becoming a star or a bust, in which the former Tigers have north of a 60% chance of stardom.

Regarding other more notable names in this year's class, such as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Keon Coleman, the model gives them high chances of becoming a bust with 29.4%% and 51.4% chances, respectively. Predictions like Marvin Harrison Jr.'s are predictions that make you and me both think that this model is inaccurate, in which my response is: "all models are wrong, but some are useful" - George Box. I did not create this model with the expectation of going 100% on all of the predictions, but it does have an extremely great correlation and predictive reliability, so its predictions are useful regardless of if it is perfect.

In addition to doing analytics, I also have vast experience with scouting and watching film. With doing so, it is clear that Marvin Harrison Jr. is an incredible player who has a high likelihood of stardom in the league that is not represented fairly by the model. My point is, it is likely probable that at least one player's ranking will be disagreed with, but do not have that disagreement make you question that total legitimacy of the model.

Going back to the top performers, mid to late round selections such as Troy Franklin, 4th round pick by the Denver Broncos, Jermaine Burton, 3rd round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals, and Tahj and Malik Washington, 6th and 7th round picks by the Miami Dolphins, all make the top 7 in predicted success. Troy Franklin was rumored to be a day 1-2 pick, but ended up going in the 4th round, so it will be interesting to see if he proves every team wrong by living up to the predictions of the model. The Miami Dolphins spent 2 late round selections on wide receivers Malik Washington and Tahj Washington, which were by far the highest graded receivers left on the board on that time according to the model, so I cannot help but think that some analytics were involved in those decisions (although Mike McDaniel could simply just have thought that they would be fun to use in an offense).

Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Adonai Mitchell, 3 of the top 4 receivers according to the model, were all selected with early draft picks signaling that they will be used in the offense at least regularly. Other mid round picks that got drafted in the first 3 rounds, such as Jermaine Burton, Luke McCaffrey (former Rice Owl!), and Ricky Pearsall will all be competing with at least 2 other proven receivers and will all likely be at least 3rd options, but they still have a 20-30% chance of becoming stars.

Ultimately, this position group was hyped up as one of the best out of all position groups in this year's draft class, and it was not quite reflected as that with the scores. Marvin Harrison Jr. in specific was regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the last decade, but was graded near the middle of the pack in the class according to the model. Still, 14 players have a 20% chance or higher of becoming a star, which is encouraging nonetheless.